In the face of escalating climate risks that affect companies and communities worldwide, 正规博彩十大网站(WBCSD)认识到迫切需要促进创新思维和长期战略决策,以建立复原力. 在这篇insight文章中, we introduce the "Three Horizons" framework, 一种用于指导组织从短期决策过渡到长期决策的工具. 这种转变使公司能够制定战略并采取行动,不仅可以最大限度地降低风险,还可以释放长期价值创造的机会.
Why does business need to increase resilience to climate change?
气候 change is disrupting business across value chains, 退化生态系统, and increasingly impacting the most vulnerable populations around the world.
根据CDP对全球市值最大的500家公司(G500)的分析, 215 companies estimated financial impacts of around $350-400 billion in physical climate risks in the coming decades. A different study from the Economics of 气候 Adaptation estimates that 40-70% 通过具有成本效益的适应和复原力解决方案,可以避免到2030年预计损失的一半. 此外, the Global Center on Adaptation found that investing $1.8 trillion globally in five areas from 2020 to 2030 could generate $7.1 trillion in total net benefits.
Existing commitments and actions put us at risk of breaching 1.气温上升5摄氏度,而大多数公司对即将到来的气候影响仍未做好准备. 确保弹性, long-term value creation that minimizes risks and maximizes opportunities, companies must develop strategies to:
- 到2050年消除价值链排放的90-95%(到2030年消除50%),并通过永久性碳清除来中和剩余的5-10%排放
- 适应极端天气事件和不断变化的天气模式带来的日益严重的气候影响,并建立抵御能力
为什么目前对企业来说,做出增加对气候变化的适应能力的决策具有挑战性?
许多企业和关键决策者对在减缓的同时采取适应行动的紧迫感不高. 由于气候风险的不确定性和对适应工作的投资回报缺乏了解,许多企业发现很难确定适应工作的优先次序. Therefore, as a WBCSD member company states: “基于30年后可能出现的不确定性水平做出商业决策是一项挑战, 或者50年后”.
What approach can companies use to make climate-resilient decisions?
有效降低风险, 从机会中获益, and increase overall resilience to climate change, businesses need to 实现 methods to enable decisions under increased uncertainty. 这需要使用将典型的2到3年的决策周期延长到10年的方法, 20, 50年后的未来.
Companies may use a range of methods, called Foresight and Futures Practices, 超越传统的计划和预测,使领导者能够在面对未来的不确定性时与机构合作. 这些做法不仅仅是预测,还能让公司为多种可能的未来做好准备, 因此,公司可以建立内部适应能力,以管理紧急和意外情况. 例如, 气候相关财务披露工作组(TCFD)建议企业使用情景分析的前瞻性方法来评估风险并建立应对气候变化的能力.
Besides integrating scenario analysis into decision-making, 企业应该在短期内采用路径方法做出适应气候变化的决策, 媒介, 长期来看. A pathways approach enables flexible navigation towards a visionary goal, 允许采取适应和变革行动,以管理气候变化日益增加的不确定性和局部复杂性. 此外, 适应路径使企业能够在气候适应之旅的正确时间决定正确的适应措施和投资.
How can companies 实现 a pathways approach to make climate-resilient decisions?
One framework companies can use to 实现 a pathways approach is Three Horizons (3H). 该框架支持组织内部和组织之间的战略对话,以超越增量变更到支持长期价值创造的系统变更. 它支持企业在维持现有体系的创新与建立气候适应能力所需的变革性创新之间做出选择. As described further in the video below, this simple framework helps businesses to work out: 1) where we are, 2)我们想去的地方, 3)如何到达那里.
How should companies develop their own adaptation pathway approaches?
Companies should aim to develop adaptation pathways that are flexible, 降低风险, and maximize opportunities associated with changes in physical climate. 为了实现这个目标, 公司应该计划, 实现, 并根据下图中的建议监测它们的适应战略:
获得最大的投资回报和建设弹性的竞争优势, 公司需要尽早整合这些变革性途径方法. 这些前瞻性和战略性方法最终将使先行者能够有效地创新和开发适应气候变化的产品和服务,从而提高盈利能力,同时最大限度地为企业创造价值, 社会, 与自然.
Where can you get further support on this topic?
WBCSD
下载报告”Strategic Resilience: A Primer for Business' for further information on foresight capacity and business resilience. 此外, WBCSD’s Adaptation & Resilience workstream (through the 气候 and 农业 & 食品项目)将继续支持其成员公司应对与建立韧性相关的挑战,并将制定以业务为重点的适应规划和途径指导. In 2024, WBCSD将发布指南,支持高级商业领袖通过调整其组织以管理物理风险和释放新机会来建立弹性. 有关如何参与世界文化及社会事务署的适应及复原力工作流程的详情, please contact Madeline Ojakovoh at ojakovoh@bearinterestgroup.com.
未来的管理者
支持资源、视频和使用“三个地平线”的组织的链接可在以下网站找到 www.futurestewards.com.
聚贤社
聚贤社 (LQ) grows wise leaders for a regenerative future. LQ’s alchemy is in bringing different worlds together to partner on meaningful change. 作为一个社会企业, LQ has spent over 20 years developing wise leaders who are building a more equitable, inclusive and sustainable world. 我们的工作范围从帮助首席执行官将利润与目标结合起来,到促进跨部门合作,以解决21世纪的决定性挑战. For support in Three Horizons workshop facilitation, please contact 卡罗莱纳 Moeller, Leaders’Quest的合伙人 卡罗莱纳.Moeller@leadersquest.org, or Rosa Sommer, Director at 聚贤社 at 罗莎.sommer@leadersquest.org.